This years ‘Oaks’ looks to be a very open renewal, but lets not confuse open with competitive, it may well be that this is a substandard year and very few of the field look like making an impact at Group 1 level. Still one of the fillies has to win so lets see if we can make some sense of it all. Often, unlike in the ‘Derby’, stamina is at less of a premium, as normally in the Oaks they don’t go quite as fast a gallop. However, this year the field looks like being quite large and they are likely to go much more of a clip than usual, putting an emphasis on stamina. Vying for favouritism are the Queen’s filly ‘Flight of fancy’ and ‘Imagine’ the Irish ‘1000 Guineas’ heroine.

Flight of Fancy: is from Michael Stoute’s stable and is by ‘Sadlers Wells’ out of a ‘Phantom Gold’ who won the ‘Ribblesdale Stakes’ at Ascot (12 furlongs). She will certainly stay the trip but might prefer cut in the ground. Her attitude has to be questioned after a disappointing performance in the ‘Musidora Stakes’ at York and I am less inclined to blame Kieron Fallon for the ride he gave her than the Queen’s racing manager, Lord Caenarvon. At a best price 7/2 she represents poor value and I seriously doubt whether she will be able to hold a position, which is vital to being success at this track.

That race was won by ‘Time Away’, one of two John Dunlop fillies entered and she is from a good middle distance family (by Darshaan). She was however a little bit unbalanced at York and looks as though the cambers of Epsom might find her out; Michael Kinane has already expressed his reserves about her acting at Epsom. She may well sidestep the ‘Oaks’ in search of a flatter track.

Relish The Thought: beaten almost two lengths by ‘Time Away’ in the ‘Musidora’ is at around 9/1 and her style of racing suggests that she is unlikely to ‘relish’ the step up in trip of the ‘Oaks’ (12 furlongs).

Foodbroker Fancy: was sixth in the Musidora and has gone on to frank the form, but her trainer David Elsworth was originally not in favour of Epsom (not entered) and although he and the owner are making loud noises about her being supplemented now, she is a very small filly and lacks some of the scope of the others. She has improved a bit for the step up in distance, but I can’t see her winning in what could be a rough race.

Prior to the ‘Musidora Stakes’ ‘Time Away’ had finished a close third to, ‘Mot Juste’ and ‘Tarfshi’ both are also contenders at Epsom. ‘Mot Juste’ is by ‘Mtoto’ out of the miler in ‘Shaadi’ and might just be found out by the trip at Epsom, she is very inexperienced with only one maiden win to her credit. Of the two ‘Tarfshi’ is the more stoutly bred, coincidentally also by ‘Mtoto’, but out of staying mare. Again whether she has the class to win is debatable.

Silver Grey Lady: is an interesting contender for John Dunlop and having looked fairly exposed seems to have improved with her racing and for longer trips. That is hardly surprising having been sired by ‘Saddlers Hall’ and out of ‘Grey Dawn’. Her maiden win at Newbury in April was effortless and future winners ‘Lumiere D'Espoir' and ‘Rockerlong’ were behind. Although she only beat ‘Sunstone’ by 6 lengths, that horse provides a reliable yardstick, having been beaten nine lengths by ‘Time Away’ in the Musidora. ‘Silver Grey Lady’ reminds me of her staying half-sister ‘Silver Patriarch’ and she ran an extraordinary race at Lingfield recently, being headed by Henry Cecil’s ‘Double Crossed’ only to be switched after hitting the running rail and finishing fast, beaten a quarter of a length. She was controversially awarded the race by the local stewards, only to have it snatched away again at Portman Square (Jockey Club) a week later. Fillies who truly stay twelve furlongs are rare and if this race is run at a true gallop she will be staying on at the end. Proven on fast ground she could have the assistance of Pat Eddery (if ‘Time Away’ doesn’t line up), but whoever gets the ride at Epsom looks sure to go close.

Zanzibar: is also bred to like the distance (by ‘In the Wings’). She has never encountered truly fast ground and could struggle against the very best of her generation despite recently winning the ‘Italian Oaks'. That was a poor race by European Classic standards and she was entitled to win comfortably on her pre-race form and she had looked in need of a mile and a half after winning the ‘Dove Stakes’ at Leicester. She is yet to be supplemented and though she will run well for Michael Bell if she takes her place, I think that third or fourth will be the limit of her achievements.

Candice: is bred in the purple (by ‘Caerleon’ out of a ‘Shirley Heights’ mare) but there is a suspicion that she is more like her dam ‘Criquette’ (half-sister to the miler 'Markofdistinction') and she may not get the trip. Her trainer favours the ‘Prix de Diane’ (French Oaks) run over a mile and two furlongs and she looks fully exposed.

Najah: is Godolphin’s main contender and whilst it is foolish to write off one of their hopes this ‘Nashwan’ filly looks out of her depth. Her second to ‘Speirbhean’ in a Listed race at ‘Leopardstown’ hardly looks top class and the winner was well beaten in the ‘Irish 2000 Guinea’s recently. She is not likely to improve for the step up in distance, as her dam was the miler ‘Mehthaaf’.

Santa Isobel: is from the in-form Ian Balding stable and has stamina aplenty on both sides of her pedigree (by ‘Nashwan’ out of a ‘Slip Anchor’ mare). Kevin Darley takes the ride and she is improving fast after being beaten in three maidens prior to winning a Listed race at Newbury. She could, if Epsom doesn’t come too soon improve again and making the frame is a distinct possibility. She is a lively outsider and her astute trainer never sends a horse for the Epsom Classics unless he is confident of a good performance.

Tempting Fate: ran in the ‘French 1000 Guineas’ finishing a creditable fourth. She handles fast ground and her overall level of form is up to Group class. However there is more than a suspicion that she will be best at a mile and I can’t see her being at her best over further. She is readily passed over.

Karasta: has been a big disappointment (down the field in both the ‘English’ & ‘Irish 1000 Guineas’ this year and it is now obvious that she was precocious last season. An early foal (Jan 31^st) she was a big imposing filly last year and some of her generation may now have caught her up. On breeding she can’t possibly stay twelve furlongs and may well not make the race.

Gay Heroine: is a relatively inexperienced filly for Michael Stoute and her second to ‘Rockerlong’ does not look good enough to recommend her as a Group 1 winner. That horse has been well beaten since in the ‘Chester Oaks’. She was beaten soundly by ‘Time Away’ last year and looks short of top class.

Marani: is John Gosden’s main hope and though likely to improve for her seasonal debut (winning a maiden at Goodwood) she is more likely to be aimed at the ‘Ribblesdale Stakes’ at Ascot. She is from the family of ‘Toulon’ the St Leger winner and will stay a mile and four furlongs.

‘Nadia’ and ’Choc Ice’ represent France. The latter ‘Choc Ice’ looks very exposed having already run eight times and though she will relish the trip (sired by ‘Kayhasi’) is not good enough to make the frame.

Nadia: has some reasonable form and is the more likely French challenger on form. She will stay the distance well (by ‘Nashwan’ out of a Nijinsky’ mare) and could run well without making the frame.

So, that leaves just the Aiden O’Brien hope ‘Imagine’. By ‘Sadlers Wells’ and being a half sister to Derby winner ‘Generous’ she will be a popular choice for the ‘Oaks’, having won a competitive looking ‘Irish 1000 Guineas’ and striding away in the final furlong from ‘Crystal Music’ (fourth in the English 1000 Guineas). However it is worth remembering that ‘The Curragh’ had been over-watered and the combination of the stiff track and the softer ground could well have contributed to the ease of her victory. Fast ground might just find her out at Epsom, but there is no doubting that she has a major chance. It is difficult to ‘imagine’ her being out of the first four, but she may be outpaced by some of those who act on faster ground.

A difficult race to pick the winner from and with no outstanding filly this year and the form being all of a similar level, it looks better to opt for an obvious improver. ‘Silver Grey Lady’ fits the bill and of all the contenders she is the one who should be suited best by a test of stamina. The race is sure to be run at a fast pace and she is likely to come with a late rattle. At around 12/1 she looks good value. 'Imagine' looks likely to make the frame and I would not be surprised to see ‘Santa Isobel’ run well at a big price.

In-depth study of The 2001 Derby.

© Copyright 2001, Fantasy Factory Ltd.