"If at first you don't succeed, try, try, and try again. Then give up. There's no use being a damned fool about it", was adapted from the old adage by W.C. Fields, and might have been written specifically with the stallion ‘Sadlers Wells’ in mind. In all his attempts to sire a colt to win the Derby and despite being the leading middle distance sire of recent times, he has failed miserably each time - yet come early June, a few more of his faithful progeny turn up at Epsom and try to give their father a first winner of the ‘Blue Riband’.

There are numerous theories about why no ‘Sadlers wells’ colt has been able to triumph at Epsom and probably they all play a part, although I must say it is extremely difficult to pinpoint any one major influencing factor, and some will tell you that the ‘laws of probability’ predict that a victory for one of his progeny is imminent, anyway. Well, having had to study statistics for a number of years I would prefer to follow a more ‘Bayesian’ philosophy, which for those without a mathematics degree (which is virtually the entire population of the planet) can be described by the following:

‘The significance of Bayesian philosophy lies in the fact that it treats statistical inference as extended logic using unique inferential rules instead of ad hoc methods used by orthodox statistics. Theoretically Bayesian inference is the only consistent extension of deductive logic to general propositions; practically, its results extend far beyond to that of the prevailing inferential paradigm.’

In a nutshell it means that when estimating the probability of a certain event happening (in this case a ‘Sadlers Wells’ colt winning the Derby) you may use logic or intuition to assess the real chance. For example, if in a bet with a stranger, he or she tosses a coin 20 times and it comes up heads every time, we are all taught that the expected outcome of the next toss being another head, is evens or 50%. However, intuitively one might start to think that there may be something odd about the coin, and furthermore that if the stranger is particularly shady-looking, one might deduce that perhaps the coin is two-headed. We might then begin to frame an entirely different set of odds for the bet.

Anyway, before we forget that this is an article on horseracing, what I’m trying to say is that there may be a very good reason for the ‘Sadlers Wells’ phenomenon in the Derby.

So, does it mean that these colts don’t act at Epsom. Firstly is it the going? - remember ‘Sadlers Wells’ progeny normally prefer some cut in the ground (out of ‘Fairy Bridge, the dam of ‘Fairy King’, ‘Hermitage’ and ‘Perugino’). Well, whilst it is run in early June there have been plenty of Derby’s run on soft ground in the last decade. Is it then the ability to stay the Derby distance (1mile 4 furlongs)? – well unlikely since we know that ‘Sadlers Wells’ is a great influence for stamina (average winning distance of progeny =11 furlongs) being stoutly bred on the sires side by ‘Northern Dancer’, himself descended from the ‘Nearco/Hyperion’ line. So ground and trip are seemingly no problem, so is there something more esoteric. Might it be the ability to run left-handed, after all close inspection of ‘Sadlers Wells’ race record reveals a predilection for right-handed tracks, winning the ‘Irish 2000 Guineas’ at the Curragh, the ‘Eclipse Stakes’ at Sandown and finishing second in both the ‘Prix du Jockey Club’ (French Derby) at Longchamp, and the ‘King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes’, at Ascot. All right-handed tracks which are predominantly flat. Epsom, a left-handed track with pronounced cambers and undulations might just not suit his progeny’s conformation.

I tend to think that it might be the last of these factors which is the most relevant. After all, racing is littered with horses who could only perform optimumly travelling in only one direction. Roberto (Derby winner) is a typical example, a horse who won left-handed but could never reproduce the same devastating bursts of acceleration going right-handed. And recently, in National Hunt racing, the trainer ‘Paul Nicholls’ has been keen to remind us of the difficulty his chaser ‘ Shotgun Willy’ has, in travelling in a clockwise direction.

Still there is a glimmer of hope for all those who believe that this most successful sire of recent times will finally prevail with one of his offspring. After all, ‘Salsabil’ his daughter won the ‘Oaks’ in 1990 by five lengths from .’Game Plan’. But, more often the tale in the Derby has been of ’Sadlers Wells’ colts underperforming, and despite numerous seconds and thirds, last years failures only add weight to the hypothesis. ‘Aristotle’ and ‘Saffron Walden’ were well beaten and ‘Beat Hollow’ finished six lengths adrift of Sinndar and ‘Sakhee’, despite being out of the ‘Dancing Brave’ mare ‘Wemyss Bight’. Was it any coincidence then that the winner ‘Sinndar’ was not bred by ‘Sadlers Wells’ but in fact came from the family of ‘Northern Dancer’ (by Grand lodge) out of ‘Sinntara’ the staying mare – truly bred for the Derby, easy to select and paid a handsome reward of around 6/1.

So to more practical matters, picking the winner of the Derby. It seems to me that given all the previous information we can put a tentative line through a number of the Epsom Derby entrants immediately, i.e. the colts of ‘Sadlers Wells’ or perhaps as he should be renamed ’Indian Sign’!

‘Galileo’, ‘Musha Merr’, ‘Curtain Time’, ‘Mediterranean’ (all by Sadlers Wells’)

‘Tobougg’ (by ‘Barathea’ i.e. Sadlers Wells as a grandsire) and

‘Dawari’ (by ‘In The Wings’ i.e. Sadlers Wells as a grandsire)

Still, perhaps it would be rather too condescending to dismiss them completely without a proper assessment of their chances based on natural ability, so below is a comprehensive discussion of the horses entered for Epsom on June 9^th.

Galileo: of all the ‘Sadlers Wells’ colts he might have the best chance of breaking the hoodoo as his dam ‘Urban Sea’ was a top class middle distance performer, winning the ‘Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe’ in 1993. However, she too liked soft ground and matured late as a four year-old . The balance of the form of ‘Galileo’ is probably not good enough anyway with his Listed win and recent Group 3 victory over ‘Exaltation’ (1mile 2 furlongs) being just short of top class. At 4/1 he represents poor value from a yard who is still looking for a first Derby win.

Musha Merr: is stoutly bred on the dams side by ‘Valdara’ (by ‘Darshaan’) and will stay well. The Godolphin trained colt has improved recently beating ‘Potemkin’ and ‘Londoner’ in the Glasgow Stakes at York. Again the overall balance of his form is not good enough.

Curtain Time: available at around 20/1, he looks a non-stayer being out of a ‘Chief Singer’ mare ‘Alidiva’ and although it is dangerous to ever write off a Henry Cecil trained colt he looks an unlikely winner. He was a well beaten sixth in the ‘Champagne Stakes’ at Newmarket over 12 furlongs in May.

Mediterranean: is out of the staying mare ‘Palo’ (by ‘High Top’) and will probably improve for the Derby trip, but he is obviously well behind stablemate ‘Galileo’ at home and is very inexperienced (one run in a maiden beating ‘Delude’ by four lengths).

Tobougg: is by ‘Barathea (himself by ‘Sadlers Wells’). They often get 10-12 furlongs, but his dam ‘Lacovia’ is little known, and he hardly looks likely to improve for the step up in trip. He finished a well beaten ninth in the 2000 Guineas and is unlikely to contest the race at Epsom.

Dawari: is the third of Michael Stoutes Derby colts and is by ‘In The Wings’ (by Sadlers Wells’). Being out of a ‘Mill Reef’ mare (‘Lashkari’) he would stay the distance but if both ‘Golan’ and ‘Dilshaan’ make the race he may not line-up.

Golan: Michael Stoute’s colt put up an impressive performance in the 2000 Guineas coming from last to first in the style of a class act. Sectional race times show that he quickened up well in the last furlong (a faster last 2 furlongs than last years impressive winner ‘Kings Best’), gradually wearing down Richard Hannon’s ‘Tamburlaine’ (who we had tipped each-way for the race – went off at SP of12/1). However, given Guineas winners dreadful record in following up at Epsom (true odds of those who have tried are more than 10/1) – with only ‘Nashwan’ triumphing in the last twenty years, I would like longer odds than 2/1 at which he is currently available. Anyway, on breeding he is still not guaranteed to get the trip, although it is quite possible being by ‘Spectrum’ who although was better known as a miler, is from the family of ‘Rainbow Quest’ (progeny stay at least 10 furlongs). On the dams side there is plenty of stamina (out of ‘Highland Gift’ who was by ‘Generous’ out of a ‘Shirley Heights’ mare, Scots Lass’).

Dilshaan: is also highly rated by his trainer, and Michael Stoute is loathed to dismiss his chance. By ‘Darshaan’ (sired by Derby winner ‘Shirley Heights’) he has stamina on both sides of his pedigree, the dam ‘Avila’ being by ‘Adjal’ (‘Northern Dancer’ line). His win in the ‘Racing Post Trophy’ as a two year-old was a significant staying performance and this colt looks like a great St Leger prospect. He showed that he has trained on by winning the ‘Dante Stakes’ at York and will probably improve for the run. Whether he has the pace to lie up at Epsom on fast ground is debatable and reluctantly he is passed over.

Perfect Sunday: is one of Barry Hills four likely Derby runners, a race in which he has never trained the winner. This colt is probably his best hope of victory and was impressive in winning the ‘Lingfield Derby Trial’ on May 12^th, making the pace and staying on well to beat ‘Putra Sandhurst’ and ‘When in Rome’. A line through ‘Prizewinner’ (well beaten in seventh in that race) gives him the beating of ‘Terrestrial’ who is one of John Gosden’s best three year-old colts and the form of the race is rock solid with ‘And Beyond’, who was beaten out of sight, going on to score recently at York. In addition, collateral form lines through Henry Cecil’s ‘Curtain Time’ give ‘Perfect Sunday’ the clear advantage over the recent ‘Predominate Stakes’ winner (at Goodwood), ‘Asian Heights’ (trained by Geoff Wragg). That latter race with the reliable yardstick ‘Snowstorm’ finishing only four lengths off the winner, does not look up to the required standard for a Derby winner, and that same colt was beaten a similar distance by Godolphin’s main hope ‘Celtic Silence’ last year at Royal Ascot. ‘Perfect Sunday’, is bred by a Derby winner, ‘Quest For Fame’ which is a great plus and although the dam ‘Sunday Bazaar’ is a little known US mare, he should stay the trip well as he has a relaxed style of running. Tough, battle-hardened and experienced, he has the pace to lie up at Epsom and he will handle the track. Improving fast, he looks great value at around 10/1 and as long as the ground remains good or faster, will be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Celtic Silence: is Godolphin’s main hope and Dettori will ride. Frankie has never ridden the winner of the Derby and this colt may not be good enough to break his duck. By ‘Celtic Swing’ this colt will probably be at his best on soft ground and though he looks like will probably stay 12 furlongs well, his dam is the unraced US mare ‘Smart ‘N Noble’, so stamina is not guaranteed. His sire ‘Celtic Swing’ was a precocious two year-old and never really achieved the heights expected at three, despite winning the ‘Prix du Jockey Club’ (French Derby) at Longchamp and like his sire, ‘Celtic Silence’ showed good form at two winning the ‘Chesham Stakes’ at Royal Ascot. He is unlikely, in any case to reverse Dante form with ‘Dilshaan’ and I can’t see him winning.

Hemingway: is an interesting runner from Aiden O’Brien’s ‘Ballydoyle’ stable. By ‘Spectrum’ (same sire as ‘Golan’), his dams side is stuffed full of stamina, being out of ‘Welsh Love’(herself by ‘Ela Mana Mou’). His form at two stands up to the closest scrutiny having beaten ‘Eminence’ by 2 lengths and Mark Johnston’s well respected colt ‘Saratov’, by eight. However, his style of running (runs free) is not ideal for Epsom and his targets probably lie elsewhere and is reputedly being aimed at the French or Irish Guineas.

Vacamonte: was well touted as a Henry Cecil ‘wonderhorse’ well before his debut in July last year at Newmarket, winning nicely from ‘Shadowless’ and ‘Bonnard’ (third to ‘Dilshaan’ in the ‘Racing Post Trophy’). However, the bubble burst subsequently with two poor displays at Sandown (5^th of 7) and Newmarket (6^th of 10). No real excuses came to light. Still on breeding he has the right credentials for Epsom being by ‘Caerleon’. out of ‘Bahamian,’ (by Mill Reef), from the family of the stayer ‘Busted’. He will definitely stay the trip at Epsom, but will need fast ground. Unlikely to make the line-up, but if he did could surprise a few at long odds.

Storming Home: is also trained by Barry Hills and is a by the ‘Mr Prospector’ colt

‘Machievellian’. He is not overblessed with stamina on the sire’s side, but there is plenty on the dam’s side (out of ‘Try To Catch Me’ – by ‘Shareef Dancer’). Third to ‘Dilshaan’ in the Dante, he looks short of top class and may have to settle for some ‘Listed’ or ‘Group Three’ prizes later on.

Putra Sandhurst: is sure to improve for his second to ‘Perfect Sunday’ in the ‘Lingfield Derby Trial’. By ‘Royal Academy‘ (from the family of ‘Nijinsky’), there is no shortage of stamina on the dam’s side being out of ‘Kharimata’ (by the Derby inner ‘Kayhasi’). He is bred to stay, will like the expected fast ground and his trainer Michael Jarvis has never had his horses better. Wherever ‘Perfect Sunday’ finishes ‘Putra Sandhurst’ won’t be far away and could place at a big price.

Exaltation: John Oxx, the trainer of last years winner, ‘Sinndar’ is bred for the trip being by ‘Rainbow Quest’ and is out of a ‘Kris’ mare. His second to ‘Galileo’ in the ‘Derrinstown Derby Trial’ is solid (race won by ‘Sinndar’ last year before triumphing at Epsom) and he could go well, although it is unlikely that his trainer would be fortunate enough to have Derby winners in consecutive years.

Pebble Island: is Aiden O’Brien’s outsider who looks too inexperienced for Epsom. Likely to stay, (from the family of ‘Northern Dancer’) he is unlikely to make the line-up.

Atlantis Prince: has an unusual pedigree, being by the sprinter ’Tagula’ (likes soft ground), out of a staying dam ‘Zoom Lens’ (by ‘Caerleon’ – fast ground influence). He has appeared to stay well so far, but his style of running is unlikely to be suited to Epsom and middle distances. His optimum trip may end up as seven furlongs and probably needs cut in the ground. He was disappointing on his reappearance and is unlikely to line-up.

Clearing: has already shown himself to be close to the best of his age group. He won the ‘Free Handicap’ at Newmarket in April, the form of which has been franked by the second ‘Palace Affair’. Tough and genuine, this John Gosden trained colt is by ‘Zafonic’ and will be at his best on fast ground over 7-10 furlongs. Probably won’t run in the Derby.

Mr. Combustible: won the ‘Chester Derby Trial’ although he was workman-like rather than impressive, beating the reliable yardstick ‘ Snowstorm’. Shows he acts on a sharp track and will probably stay the trip, (by ‘Hernando’ from the family of ‘Nininski’), but overall the balance of his form is not good enough and.he is probably behind stablemates, ‘Perfect Sunday’ and ‘Storming Home’.

Perigree Moon: is another O’Brien outsider. A US bred by ‘Hennessey’ he is unlikely to make the staring stalls on Derby day.

Chancellor: is the fourth of Barry Hill’s runners and he won the ‘Sandown Classic Trial’ on desperate ground narrowly from ‘Asian Heights’ (form franked when that colt went on to win the ‘Predominate Stakes). Bred by ‘Halling’ he looks likely to make up into a better four year-old.

Nayef: is the forgotten horse. The highest rated two year-old last year, he appears not to have made the expected progression from two to three. However, he is clearly a high class colt and was always going to be better over further than a mile (by ‘Gulch’). If he takes his place at Epsom he could surprise a few of them, but a place at best is likely.

Asian Heights: This improving colt of Geoff Wragg won recently at Goodwood, beating ‘Wareed’ and ‘Snowstorm’. He was entitled to victory there by virtue of his second to ‘Chancellor’ at Sandown and although the form looks solid, using ‘Snowstorm’ as a yardstick he probably won’t trouble the principals at Epsom. He will however stay being by ‘Hernando’ out of a staying mare ‘Miss Rinjani’ and will must run well.

Wareed: Godolphin’s third string for Epsom ran creditably in the ‘Predominate Stakes’ behind ‘Asian Heights’. He wouldn’t want the ground to fast at Epsom and I can’t see this inexperienced colt threatening there.

In order to win the Epsom Derby you need a horse with a rare combination of attributes. The ability to go left-handed, and to handle fast ground (usually) are important, but two other factors are crucial to victory. Of course, first and foremost horse has to stay, but stamina on both sides of the pedigree is absolutely paramount since the race is always run at a true pace. There is one other important prerequisite and that is the ability to lie up with the pace. Often horses with a a staying pedigree get too detached early on in the race and get tapped for toe coming down the hill. It is rare to get a horse with the particular mix of qualities needed, and combine these with an ability to act on the cambers of Epsom and you can see why the winners of the race are exceptional horses. I get infuriated by the critics who continue to lambast the quality of the Epsom Derby and criticise it for being run to early in the year. It is a true test of ability for both the rider and horse and despite attempts by some to belittle the achievements of previous Derby winners, the race will continue to throw up outstanding examples of the breed. Anyone who witnessed the awesome sight of ‘Sinndar’ powering up the home straight to win the ‘Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe’ should cast their mind back to June last year at Epsom when the colt first showed his measure of true greatness.

So who will add his name to the illustrious list of former champions, this year.

The race centres around ante-post favourite ‘Golan’. If he truly gets the trip, in a race that will be run at a furious pace, he has the class to win, but I think that a place will be the limit of his achievement. ‘Dilshaan’ may not have the pace to lie up and I can’t see him in the first three. Godolphin’s main hope ‘Celtic Swing’ will run well but is unlikely to win. Since we have already discounted the progeny of ‘Sadlers Wells’ it looks like another barren year for Aiden O’Brien’s Ballydoyle stable since ‘Galileo’ is clearly his best colt. That leaves ‘Putra Sandhurst’, ‘Asian Heights’, ‘Nayef’ and the Barry Hills trained quartet. ‘Nayef’ has probably not trained on and ‘Asian Heights’ looks just short of top class with a line through ‘Chancellor’ putting him behind the main hope of the Barry Hills stable, ‘Perfect Sunday’. His demolition of the field in the ‘Lingfield Derby Trial’ makes him a obvious candidate for victory at Epsom. He has the ability to lie up with the pace and will almost certainly stay the trip. With his favoured fast ground likely and already proven over a left handed turning track he has to be placed at the very least and 10/1 looks an inviting price. That line of form brings the inexperienced ’Putra Sandhurst’ into the equation and he might also run well at a big price if he has made the necessary improvement since. With such an intriguing race this year and a number of imponderables lets see how close we can get to predicting the first ten.

1^st – Perfect Sunday, 6th
2^nd – Golan finishes 2nd
3^rd – Putra Sandhurst
4^th - Dilshaan
5^th - Chancellor
6^th - Asian Heights
7^th - Celtic Silence
8^th - Galileo, Winner
9^th - Storming Home, 5th
10^th –Musha Merr

And remember should another year go by without one of ‘Sadlers Wells’ progeny winning the Epsom Derby we might all begin to agree with Sir Humphrey Davy who wrote

© Copyright 2001, Fantasy Factory Ltd.